The ELO model prices a home win at 2.16, while the goal-difference model prices it at 2.81. The market offers 1.76, implying only 56.8% probability. The home team has superior short-term form (2.0 vs 1.0) and the home ELO rating advantage is modest but present. Short-term goal difference is poor but this is a home fixture where Aberdeen have shown better results. The value gap is acceptable for a moderate stake.

odds available at 09:45

Despite decent home form, the Poisson model actually projects Kilmarnock to create more (1.81 vs 1.16 expected goals over recent games), and all models put Aberdeen's fair price at 2.07 or higher against a 1.78 market. Consistent lay consensus against a short favourite.

odds available at 09:45