All three models (short‑term, medium‑term, and ELO) lean clearly to the home win stronger than market pricing. The home side’s baseline strength and form suggest a fair price well below 2.32.

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Aberdeen's short-term Poisson xG (1.97 vs 0.66) strongly favours the home side, and St Mirren's recent form is poor (0.67/3). The short-term fair odds model gives Aberdeen 1.46, medium-term 1.83, and ELO 1.83 — all well below the market back price of 2.32 (43.1% implied). The market appears to be underrating Aberdeen's home strength significantly across multiple models.

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This is a standout selection where all available analysis points in the same direction. All three statistical models, alongside a significant ELO and form advantage, indicate that Aberdeen are strongly undervalued by the market.

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The ELO model favors a home win, supported by superior short-term expected goals and all statistical models pointing to fair odds around 1.81, offering value over the market price of 2.32.

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Aberdeen rate shorter than the market across all three pricing views, and the matchup shows a solid gap in form, attacking output and team strength. St Mirren's medium-term record is weaker, so the home side looks underrated.

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Short-term model prices over 3.5 at 3.69, close to market but with Aberdeen's strong 1.97 xG at home and St Mirren's poor 0.66, the asymmetry suggests potential for Aberdeen to run up goals. Medium-term model is more bullish at 3.42. Thin edge with conflicting signals warrants small stake.

odds available at 09:45