Multiple models price the home win well below the market, and the ELO view leans to Ceuta at home. Recent form is comparable, but the market appears to overrate Cordoba.

The statistical fair odds for both teams to score sit at 1.75, closely aligned with the market price of 1.67 — indicating slight backing value. Both teams show reasonable Poisson expected goals (1.49 home, 1.33 away), and Ceuta's short-term home form (2.17) suggests attacking intent. This is a moderate-confidence play based on consistent model signals across both the 6 and 12-match windows.