Both short- and medium‑term models price the under notably shorter than the market, with a modest combined goal expectation and a BTTS price that leans against goals.

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Both the short-term and medium-term Poisson models project low combined expected goals (2.32 and 2.41 respectively), with the home team's short-term xG just 0.67. The models price Under 2.5 at fair odds of roughly 1.69-1.76, well below the market's 1.98, giving around a 7 percentage point edge. The home team's dire recent form and -13 goal difference over 6 matches further support a low-scoring affair.

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The Poisson model expected goals for both teams and the predicted odds for both teams to score suggest a high likelihood of both teams scoring, with the market odds offering value for a back bet.

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Ceuta's projected scoring output is only 0.67 goals in the shorter window and 1.00 over the longer sample. Both statistical windows price both teams scoring below the probability implied by the market.

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Short- and medium-term Poisson fair odds for over 2.5 sit around 2.3-2.4, implying under is the more likely outcome, while the market offers under at nearly even money. Ceuta’s very poor recent goal difference also caps the total.

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Recent expected-goals projections point to roughly two goals, with the home side particularly weak in attack. Under 2.5 goals is priced too low relative to the statistical total.

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Both the short-term and medium-term expected goals models point to a combined total below 2.5 goals for this fixture, a signal that is consistent across both sample windows. The market's Under 2.5 price implies only about 50.5% probability, below the model's fair estimate, giving reasonable value on the lower-scoring outcome.

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