Recent trends suggest at least one side often fails to score in this matchup profile, and totals lean unders. The market underrates the chance of a clean sheet on either side.

Both teams show limited attacking output, with Alaves' short-term Poisson xG at just 0.83 and Girona's at 1.17. The short-term model prices over 2.5 goals at fair odds of 3.10, and even the medium-term model places it at 2.72 — both considerably higher than the market's 2.56, implying the market overestimates goals in this La Liga fixture. Under 2.5 at 1.61 reflects genuine value.