Alaves boast strong recent home form and a clear expected goals advantage, making the market's odds for a home win appealing.

odds available at 09:45

Alaves holds a superior ELO rating and excellent short-term form, with our models pricing their win odds at 2.05 to 2.08. Furthermore, Osasuna is severely hampered by confirmed injuries to star creative midfielder Aimar Oroz and defender Jorge Herrando, making Alaves an excellent back bet at 2.38.

odds available at 09:45

Alaves have better recent form, goal difference and expected goals, and their model-driven fair odds sit below the 2.38 offered. The market is not giving enough credit to the home side's stronger profile.

odds available at 09:45

Alaves have stronger form and goal difference over both windows, alongside a clear ELO advantage. Every available match model prices the home win below the market's 2.38.

odds available at 09:45

All three models rate an Alaves win at 1.79-2.08 versus 2.38 available, with home short-term form of 2.0 points per game against Osasuna's 0.67 and a positive goal-difference edge over both windows. Consistent alignment across form, ELO and goal-difference signals suggests the market is underrating the home side.

odds available at 09:45

All four statistical models put the home win between roughly 1.79 and 2.08, well below the 2.38 available. Alaves hold a clear short-term form edge (2.0 versus 0.67 PPG), a better goal difference on both windows and the higher ELO rating, so the market appears to be underrating the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Alaves holds impressive short-term form with 2.00 points per game, a positive goal difference (+5 over six games), and an ELO rating advantage. All five statistical model projections align tightly between 1.79 and 2.08, confirming an excellent edge against the 2.38 market price.

odds available at 09:45