Both sides project well above average on Poisson xG and recent trends, with the totals models putting Over 2.5 closer to 1.4–1.7. With both teams to score also favoured, 2.16 is clear value.

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The statistical models suggest a much higher probability of three or more goals than the market odds imply. This is strongly supported by the high expected goals figures for both teams based on their recent performances.

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Both teams have strong attacking metrics (Poisson xG: 2.11 home, 1.48 away) and the predicted BTTS odds (1.47) suggest higher probability than the market (2.06). The medium-term form also supports an open game.

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Both teams are in strong scoring form with Alaves averaging 2.11 expected goals and Valencia 1.48 over the last six, and the short-term BTTS fair odds of 1.47 imply a much higher probability than the market's 2.06. The medium-term BTTS fair odds of 1.68 also point to value on Yes.

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Strong recent expected goals totals (3.59 xG combined over last six matches) and consistent statistical projections for over 2.5 goals across short-term and medium-term models indicate a significantly higher scoring probability than the market implies. Alaves' potent home scoring form and Valencia's negative away goal difference further validate the data-driven edge.

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Both the recent and medium-term goal projections point to a game above three expected goals, and both teams are projected to contribute. The fair prices for this line are materially shorter than the market, so over 2.5 looks underpriced.

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Alaves boast impressive short-term Poisson home goal projections and have seen high-scoring home matches recently. The short-term analysis predicts fair odds for Over 2.5 at 1.44, representing a substantial value gap against the generous market price of 2.16. Valencia's defensive woes, having recently conceded heavily in away fixtures, further validate the statistical signal.

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The ELO model prices Alaves at 2.01 while the market offers 1.81, and the Poisson model gives Alaves 2.11 expected goals against Valencia's 1.48. Home team shows strong short-term form at 2.0 points per game with a +7 goal difference, while Valencia has a -5 away goal difference over 6 games. The goal difference model is particularly bullish at 1.53. Multiple signals converge on home value despite the short price.

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The Poisson model projects a very high combined expected goals total of 3.59, and both short and medium-term trend models heavily favour a high-scoring game. The market appears to be underestimating the attacking output of both teams, offering generous odds for over 2.5 goals.

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The goal model projects strong combined scoring, especially in the short-term sample, and both teams have enough attacking expectation to support an open match. The fair over 2.5 prices are well below the market price, making 2.16 attractive.

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Alaves has shown great attacking intent at home under Quique Sanchez Flores, while Valencia sits bottom of the league with a heavily depleted defense due to key injuries and a caretaker manager at the helm. Short-term and medium-term Poisson expected goals both project over 3.0 total goals in this matchup, indicating the market is heavily underestimating a high-scoring game.

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Both the six- and twelve-match goal-expectation models point to a high-scoring game (combined expected goals around 3.0-3.6, fair over-2.5 odds of 1.44-1.70), yet the market prices over 2.5 near a coin flip at 2.16. The short- and medium-term windows agree in direction, which makes the goals value defensible, though stake is kept small given the size of the gap.

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The short- and medium-term goal models both make over 2.5 goals considerably more likely than the market suggests. Their expected-goal projections total 3.59 and 3.05 respectively, supporting the 63.0% estimate.

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Both the short-term and medium-term goal models price over 2.5 goals well below the market's 2.16, and the Poisson projection expects roughly 3.0-3.6 combined goals. The market-implied 46% looks too low against consistent, aligned goal signals across both windows.

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The Poisson model projects 3.59 total goals based on recent form, with both teams showing strong attacking output. Fair value odds for Over 2.5 are estimated at 1.44-1.70 against a market price of 2.16, offering clear value on the overs.

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Both goal-model windows make over 2.5 goals the likely outcome (fair odds around 1.44-1.70) yet the market prices it at 2.16 as the outsider. Recent expected goals show a high-scoring profile — Alaves about 2.1 and Valencia about 1.5 per game — and the both-teams-to-score model supports goals too.

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Recent combined expected goals are high (around 3.6 in the short window) and both the short- and medium-term totals models price over 2.5 meaningfully shorter than the market. Home goal difference and attacking form support a higher-scoring game than the 2.16 implies.

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High expected goal figures across recent match windows drive statistical fair value odds of 1.44 and 1.70 for Over 2.5 Goals, making the market price of 2.16 an attractive value opportunity.

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Alaves are creating and scoring heavily at home while Valencia's recent defensive numbers are poor. The projected goal totals make over 2.5 goals materially more likely than the market price of 2.16 implies.

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Both teams show strong attacking form over the last 6 and 12 matches with high Poisson expected goals totals. The model’s fair odds for over 2.5 are well inside the market price, indicating the market underprices goals.

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