Almeria's short-term form model prices a home win at 1.49 and their Poisson xG model at 1.40, both meaningfully below the market's 1.62. They carry exceptional form (2.5/3 over both windows) and strong Poisson xG (2.12–2.46), while Burgos's away Poisson output is low at 0.83–0.90. The ELO model is the outlier at 2.25, which tempers stake, but the form and Poisson signals are aligned and credible.

odds available at 09:45

Almeria's strong form, higher expected goals, and ELO rating advantage over Burgos are reflected in the predicted fair odds (1.40-2.25). The market odds (1.62) offer value as they imply a lower probability than the statistical models suggest.

odds available at 09:45

Almeria's home Poisson expected goals are very high at 2.12 (short-term) and 2.46 (medium-term). Both model windows predict Over 2.5 fair odds of 1.53-1.77, below the market price of 1.98. Almeria are 3rd in Segunda Division with a four-game winning run at home, and Burgos are 4th — two attacking teams in form. Slightly tempered by the quality of the opposition and two Almeria players away on international duty.

odds available at 09:45

Almeria’s attacking numbers are strong and the expected-goals projections point to a healthy total. Both short-term and medium-term goal models make the over a bit shorter than the market.

odds available at 09:45

Almeria has a strong home form and the ELO model favours them to win.

odds available at 09:45

The market implies just over 50% for over 2.5, while both short-term and medium-term goal models rate the chance clearly higher. Almeria’s attacking projection is strong enough to make the even-money range look generous.

odds available at 09:45

Almeria boast excellent short- and medium-term home form with high expected goals and a strong ELO edge over Burgos. The statistical and ELO models both price a home win below the 1.62 market back price.

odds available at 09:45

The goal projections total 2.95 over the short window and 3.36 over the medium window. Both statistical prices favour over 2.5 goals, providing a clear margin over the market's 50.5% implied probability.

odds available at 09:45

Almeria demonstrates strong short-term home form with 2.5 points per game average compared to Burgos' 1.83. The Poisson model expects 2.12 goals for Almeria versus only 0.83 for Burgos, creating a significant goalscoring edge. The market odds of 1.62 offer value against the model's fair assessment of 1.49, as Almeria's attacking form suggests they should be stronger favorites.

odds available at 09:45