Short- and medium-term projections are bullish on goals (fair 1.28–1.43) and the Poisson model’s xG total exceeds four.

odds available at 09:45

Almeria's short-term Poisson model gives fair odds of 1.44 and their medium-term model 1.51, both significantly below the market price of 1.97. Home form is a perfect 3.0/3 over 6 games, Poisson xG is 2.84 vs 1.27, and multiple models (ELO 2.01, GD model 1.96) converge on Almeria being a clear favourite. Las Palmas arrive on the back of a 5-1 defeat last time out. Market at 1.97 (50.8% implied) underestimates Almeria's true probability of ~60%.

odds available at 09:45

Almeria's strong short-term form and goal difference, along with the ELO model's prediction (fair odds 2.01), suggest the market is underestimating their win probability at 1.97.

odds available at 09:45

Almeria's perfect recent form (3.0 ppg last 6) and strong home ELO rating (1681) point to fair odds around 1.44-1.51, significantly below the 1.97 market price. Las Palmas have poor form (1.0 ppg last 6) and the Poisson model heavily favours Almeria.

odds available at 09:45

Almeria have perfect short-term form (3.0 points per game from last 6) with a Poisson home xG of 2.84. All primary models favour Almeria winning, with the ELO model suggesting fair odds around 2.01 and the Poisson model around 1.44-1.51. The market at 1.97 underestimates this strong home side.

odds available at 09:45