Almeria’s attack is in strong form and combined xG is very high across both recent and medium-term samples. Multiple models make Over 3.5 shorter than the market price.

Almeria show strong recent form (2.0 points per game over last 6) against a Leonesa side averaging just 0.83 points per game. The ELO model, goal-difference model, and Poisson all strongly favour Almeria, with the ELO model pricing them at 1.44 fair odds — the market's 1.52 implies only 65.8% probability versus my estimated 72%. Almeria's home expected goals of 2.26 versus Leonesa's 0.99 further confirms dominance.

The home side, Almeria, has been generating a very high number of expected goals in recent matches. Our models suggest the probability of three or more goals is higher than the market odds imply, making this a value selection.