Ligue 2 trends low scoring and both the short- and especially medium-term models make Under 2.5 significantly shorter than the market. Chance creation profiles support a tight game.

Amiens have been extremely poor at home with just 0.67 points per game over 6 matches and a goal difference of -9 over 12, while ESTAC Troyes carry better form (1.33 over 6 matches) and the ELO model sets fair odds at 2.31 — though the form model suggests this is close. The market's 1.93 represents reasonable value for Troyes as the stronger outfit, but I'm keeping the stake modest given model divergence.

All available statistical models indicate that the away team is significantly overpriced. Recent expected goals data in particular suggests the home side is a much stronger contender than the market reflects. This consensus across multiple models points to strong value in betting against an away win.