Le Mans have been in excellent form (1.83 points per game over 6 matches, 1.67 over 12) against a struggling Amiens side (0.67 ppg over both windows). The ELO, statistical, and goal-difference models all converge on Le Mans as favourites with fair odds around 1.82-2.0, slightly below the market's 2.12. Amiens carry a worrying -10 goal difference over 12 matches, reinforcing Le Mans as the value play.

odds available at 10:45

All statistical models suggest the away side is undervalued by the market. Le Mans has substantially better recent form and a much higher ELO rating, making them the clear favourites according to the data.

odds available at 10:45

Le Mans have strong away form at 1.83 points over 6 games versus Amiens' dire 0.67. All models favour the away side — Poisson short-term gives fair odds of 1.90, the goal-difference model over 12 matches gives 1.94, and the ELO model gives 1.99. At a market price of 2.12 (implied 47.2%), there's value backing Le Mans given their estimated true probability around 51%.

odds available at 10:45