Both sides show very low recent attacking output and the medium-term model prices over 2.5 around 3.3 (implying under near 70%) versus a market implying ~61%. Multiple signals point to a low total.

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Arbroath's ELO rating (1532 vs 1313) and goal-difference model (fair odds 1.79) both indicate a home win, while Queens Park's form is poor (0.67 points per game over six matches). The market's 1.86 offers value against the model's fair odds of around 1.65-1.79.

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Both teams project low on goals, and the recent expected-goals numbers combine to roughly one goal for the match. The medium-term data is also on the low side, with the scoring profile pointing more toward a tight game than a three-goal match.

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Both teams have displayed extremely poor attacking form this season, combining for a minimal number of goals. The Poisson expected goals total is just 1.00 in the short term, presenting tremendous value on the Under 1.5 goals market at high odds.

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Both teams display very low expected goals and poor recent scoring records, with short-term Poisson projections indicating a very low-scoring affair. The statistical models strongly support a low-scoring game, offering solid value on the under.

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The short-term goal projection is very low and the medium-term view still leans clearly below the market's scoring expectation. Both teams also show weak goal-difference profiles, making under 2.5 look overpriced at this line.

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The ELO model and medium-term match-odds model both favour Arbroath around 1.65-2.19, and the home side has notably better recent form plus a large ELO rating edge over Queens Park. The offered 1.86 back price sits above the model consensus, indicating modest value.

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The combined goal expectation is only 1.00 from the recent window and 1.92 over the longer sample. Both totals models make under 2.5 more likely than the market's 60.6% implied probability.

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Both sample windows point firmly to a low-scoring match: the over 2.5 fair odds are 12.45 (last 6) and 3.33 (last 12) versus a market over price of 2.42, and recent combined expected goals are just 1.0. The market implies only ~61% for the under, while the models suggest roughly 70%.

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Both the short-term and medium-term Poisson models point to a low-scoring game, with expected goals especially suppressed in the recent window and the fair over 2.5 price still well above the market even on the longer sample. Combined with weak away attacking output, under 2.5 is under-priced relative to the data.

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Both teams have demonstrated limited offensive output, yielding a combined expected goal total of just 1.00 over their last 6 matches and 1.92 over their last 12 matches. Poisson model fair odds for under 2.5 goals sit between 1.09 and 1.43, indicating strong value in the offered market price of 1.65.

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Home team has strong recent form but market prices them too short, indicating overestimation based on ELO and form metrics.

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Recent attacking output is very low for both teams, and even the medium-term goal expectation supports a tight, low-scoring match. Under 2.5 goals offers value at the current price.

odds available at 09:45