Arminia Bielefeld have strong short-term form and a much better goal difference than St Pauli, who are in very poor form. The Poisson model expects over two goals for the home side, and the market price of 2.46 is longer than the fair odds of around 1.4-1.5, presenting a strong value opportunity.

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Short-term form model prices Bielefeld at 1.38 and the goal-difference model at 1.74, both far shorter than the 2.46 available. Home form is much stronger than St Pauli's, whose medium-term goal difference is -15. ELO is close so I'm sizing modestly.

odds available at 09:45

Bielefeld's recent form and attacking output are far superior, while St Pauli have been leaking goals over both short and medium term. The statistical models rate a home win considerably higher than the 2.46 price implies.

odds available at 09:45

Arminia have a substantial recent-form advantage and are projected to outscore St Pauli by roughly two goals to one. Most outcome and goal-difference models make the home side considerably shorter than the market's 40.7% implied probability.

odds available at 09:45

Both form-based models price the home win far shorter than the market, backed by strong recent home form against an away side averaging under a point per game with a heavily negative goal difference. The Poisson model expects the hosts to outscore the visitors by nearly three to one, and only the ELO model is neutral.

odds available at 09:45

The goal-expectancy model makes Bielefeld a strong home favourite (fair odds around 1.4-1.5 over both windows) yet the market offers 2.46. Bielefeld's recent home attacking output (over 2.3 expected goals per game) contrasts with St Pauli's dire run — no win momentum, a goal difference of -15 over the last 12 — and the goal-difference model agrees the home side should be much shorter. The market appears anchored to baseline ratings rather than current form.

odds available at 09:45