Arouca have 2.17 form over six and 1.92 over twelve with a +7 goal difference, while Estrela have 1.0 and 0.67 form with a -3 goal difference. The ELO model prices Arouca at 1.64 and the goal-difference model at 1.61, both shorter than the 2.14 available, indicating clear value on the home win.

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Arouca hold clear medium-term advantages in form, goal difference and ELO strength. Those baseline models price a home win notably shorter than 2.14, supporting an estimated probability above the market's 46.7%.

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Arouca hold the better recent and medium-term form, the stronger home scoring projection, and the ELO and medium-window models rate them clearly above the market's ~47% implied chance. The most recent form model is less convinced, which caps confidence, but the balance of signals favours the home side at a generous price.

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Arouca show positive form with a short-term form score of 2.17, supported by a notable ELO strength advantage over Estrela. Both the ELO model and medium-term goal difference model assess fair value near 1.61 to 1.64, making the market price of 2.14 a high-value selection.

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The ELO, medium-term form and goal-difference models all put Arouca at 50-62%, against the market's 47%. Arouca also have stronger short-term form, 2.17 points per game against 1.00, and a clear ELO edge.

odds available at 09:45