Arsenal's last five Champions League matches all went under 2.5 goals, and under Arteta they concede just 0.65 goals per game in the competition. The first leg was a tight 1-1 dominated by penalties with few open-play chances, and Atletico are built to sit deep and frustrate. The market at 49.5% implied undervalues the probability of another low-scoring encounter given both teams' defensive identities and the knockout context.

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This is the second leg of a semi-final, tied 1-1, so both teams must seek a result. Atletico Madrid rested their entire first team at the weekend and created the better chances in the first leg, suggesting they can score. However, they have also conceded at least twice in seven of their last ten away matches, making an Arsenal goal likely at home.

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Research indicates both teams have strong attacking lineups and recent form suggests high-scoring tendencies. Atletico Madrid's defensive vulnerabilities and Arsenal's home attacking strength make BTTS likely. The market odds of 2.02 imply a 49.5% chance, which appears conservative given the context.

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Web research shows Arsenal have exceeded 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home matches, with Atletico conceding multiple goals in recent away games, suggesting the market underestimates the probability of over 2.5 goals.

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Arsenal boast an exceptional home record in the Champions League this season, winning five of six matches at the Emirates, including a 4-0 group stage victory over Atletico [1.5]. Despite minor injury concerns to key playmakers, Arsenal's superior defensive solidity and home advantage provide a clear, grounded edge.

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