Both short- and medium-term goal models project totals below 3.5, with fair pricing implying roughly 62–67% for the under. The market implies just 51.5% at 1.94, creating clear value; even with a strong home edge, the data points to a controlled win more often than a shootout.

odds available at 09:45

Both the short-term model (fair odds 1.69) and medium-term model (1.94) indicate BTTS is significantly underpriced at 2.74, with the market implying only 36.5% probability versus model estimates of 51-59%. Arsenal's Poisson expected goals of 1.97 and Burnley's 1.16 mean both sides are expected to score, and Burnley's recent 2-2 draw against Aston Villa — with striker Flemming having netted double-digit goals this season — confirms their attacking threat is real despite relegation.

odds available at 09:45

Both short- and long-term analysis models suggest the market is overestimating the likelihood of a high-scoring game, with fair odds calculated to be significantly lower than the price available. The underlying expected goals data supports this, with the combined total for both teams falling below the 3.5 goal line. While Arsenal are strong favourites against a relegated side, Burnley have historically struggled to score against them, which provides a buffer against an unusually high goal total.

odds available at 09:45

Arsenal's strong attacking form (1.97 expected goals over last 6 matches) and Burnley's poor defensive record (-10 goal difference) suggest a high-scoring game. The predicted fair odds for Over 2.5 (1.65) are significantly lower than the market's 1.41, indicating value.

odds available at 09:45

Arsenal have dominant short-term form (2.5 points per game) and a massive ELO rating advantage (1817 vs 1291), while Burnley are in terrible form with 0.67 points per game and a -10 goal difference over 6 matches. The predicted fair odds from multiple models (1.07-1.78) all support a comfortable home win, and the market price of 1.11 offers solid value against a team that has lost 5 of their last 6.

odds available at 09:45

Statistical models consistently estimate a 59.2% probability of both teams scoring—significantly above the market-implied 36.5%. This edge is reinforced by Arsenal's strong home attacking metrics and Burnley's sustained away goal expectation (1.16 xG over last 6 matches), with short and medium-term form, Poisson projections, and BTTS-specific models all aligning on value.

odds available at 09:45

Both the short-term and medium-term goal projections make 4+ goals less likely than the market suggests, so the under should be priced shorter than 1.94. Arsenal are clearly the stronger side, but the expected-goals numbers point more toward a game around three goals than a shootout, and Burnley's attacking profile is not strong enough to justify this line.

odds available at 09:45

The market is heavily discounting Burnley's scoring chances, but the short-term Poisson analysis implies fair odds of 1.69 for both teams to find the net. With the visitors recording steady recent expected goals metrics and Arsenal navigating an injury crisis at fullback, the available price presents an exceptional value discrepancy.

odds available at 09:45

Arsenal's expected goals at home sit near 2.0 across both short and medium-term windows, with Burnley contributing around 1.0 themselves, making the combined goal expectation well above 1.5. The medium-term over 1.5 fair odds sit around 1.28 versus a market price of 1.13, but the implied probability gap is favourable given Arsenal's home dominance and Burnley's leaky defence (goal difference -14 over 12).

odds available at 09:45

Burnley's away form is dire with just 0.5 points per game over 12 matches and a terrible -14 goal difference. Arsenal's strong defence plus Burnley's anemic attack creates a clear 'No' edge. The model consensus across multiple windows prices BTTS 'No' much shorter than 1.56, with ELO suggesting this is closer to a 1.19 shot for Arsenal dominance.

odds available at 09:45