Both sides show high recent attacking output and xG, and the models rate over 2.5 goals around the low-70% range. Market implies only ~56%.

Both the 6 and 12-month Poisson models project high expected goals for both sides (Arsenal 2.11, Chelsea 1.64), and the statistical fair value for over 2.5 goals sits at around 1.38 across both windows — far shorter than the market's 1.78. This means the under 2.5 at 2.26 is significantly overpriced, making the lay of under 2.5 a value position in what should be a high-scoring top-of-the-table encounter.