Auxerre's short-term home form and expected goals output are significantly better than Brest's away metrics. The statistical models unanimously point to a home win being much more likely than the market odds suggest.

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Auxerre hold a clear short-term form advantage, and every supplied match model rates Brest below the market's 41.7% implied win probability. The longer-term goal difference and ELO assessments also favour the home side.

odds available at 09:45

The market oddly makes Brest an away favourite despite Auxerre's superior recent form (2.17 v 0.83 points per game), higher ELO rating and much better goal expectation. All statistical models rate Auxerre's fair price between roughly 1.6 and 2.3, so 3.25 is clear value even after shading for the large gap.

odds available at 09:45