Recent form, goal difference and xG favour the visitors, and both the baseline and ELO models rate them around mid‑40% to win versus ~31% implied by 3.20. The market underrates Stenhousemuir’s edge here.

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All three models — short-term form, goal difference, and ELO — consistently favour Stenhousemuir as the stronger side, with fair odds estimated between 1.94 and 2.31 against the market's 3.20. The away team's excellent recent form (1.83 average points per game over six matches) and superior ELO rating are backed by league table data confirming Stenhousemuir are top of the Championship with six wins from seven. The market at 3.20 implies only a 31% win probability, well below my 43% estimate.

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All analysis signals point towards value on the away team. Stenhousemuir has superior recent form, a much better goal difference, and all statistical models (ELO, goal-difference, and Poisson) price their fair odds significantly lower than the available market price. The market appears to be underestimating the in-form away side.

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Stenhousemuir exhibits superior short-term and medium-term form, with a strong goal difference and higher ELO rating. The predicted fair odds for an away win (2.30-1.94 across models) are lower than the market back price (3.20), suggesting value. The away team's recent performance and underlying metrics support this selection.

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Stenhousemuir's superior form (1.83 vs 1.17 over six matches), positive goal difference (+9 vs -3), and higher ELO rating (1581 vs 1479) all point to an away win. The goal-difference model gives fair odds of 2.31 for the away side, well below the market's 3.20, indicating clear value.

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Stenhousemuir are league leaders with a 6-game winning run, 19 points from 7 matches, and only 2 goals conceded. All models strongly favour an away win: Poisson and goal-difference models put fair odds around 1.94-2.31 versus the market price of 3.20. Ayr sit 6th with a negative goal difference and lost their last match 1-3.

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Stenhousemuir's strong recent form (1.83 points per game), positive goal difference (+9), and higher expected goals consistently indicate value across multiple statistical models. These models estimate their win probability at approximately 44.5%, significantly exceeding the market's implied probability of 31.25% at odds of 3.20.

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Stenhousemuir have the stronger recent and medium-term form, a much better goal difference, and all three win models make them shorter than this price. Ayr look too short in the market given the weaker underlying numbers.

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Stenhousemuir are top of the league with an outstanding recent form record, yet the market prices them as clear underdogs against a struggling side. The short-term and medium-term statistical models strongly favour the away side, highlighting significant value in backing them at current odds.

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The away team shows exceptional short and medium-term form, combined with a vastly superior goal difference and expected goals metrics. All statistical models heavily favour an away win, highlighting a significant market mispricing.

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Ayr look too short in the market given weaker recent form, negative goal difference, and all three win-probability models rating Stenhousemuir stronger. The market implies Ayr win close to 40%, but the analysis points much lower.

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Ayr is overrated by the market, which prices them as favorites despite poor recent form. In contrast, newly-promoted Stenhousemuir leads the league with six wins in their last seven matches, and all statistical models place the fair odds of an Ayr win above 3.60.

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Stenhousemuir have substantially stronger form over both windows, a superior goal difference and the higher ELO rating. Every match-result model rates Ayr's win probability well below the 39.7% implied by the lay price.

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All three statistical models favour the away side: recent form (1.83-1.92 vs 1.08-1.17 points per game), goal difference (+9/+10 vs -3/-6) and ELO strength (1581 vs 1479) all point to Stenhousemuir, with fair odds around 2.16-2.31. The market price of 3.20 implies only ~31%, a clear and consistent undervaluation of the away win.

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Every major signal agrees the away side should be favoured or close to it: superior short- and medium-term form, strongly positive goal difference, higher ELO rating, and Poisson match-odds models all price the away win around 2.0-2.3. The market still makes the home side favourite at much longer away odds, creating a clear mispricing.

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Stenhousemuir currently lead the league standings with 19 points from 7 matches and clearly outperform Ayr across short-term and medium-term form, goal difference, and ELO strength ratings. Statistical fair odds for an away win range between 1.94 and 2.31 across models, presenting substantial value against the market back price of 3.20.

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Away team demonstrates superior short-term form and higher expected goals, market underestimates their win probability.

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The away side's superior recent form, goal difference and strength ratings all point the same way, yet the market still treats the home side as favourite. The away win looks materially undervalued.

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Stenhousemuir shows much stronger short-term and medium-term form than Ayr, backed by a clearly superior goal difference in both windows and a higher ELO rating. The ELO model, the recent-form model and the medium-term model all independently price the away win well above the market's implied probability, giving multiple aligned signals for value.

odds available at 09:45