The predicted fair odds for Over 3.5 goals are 2.40 (short-term) and 2.99 (medium-term), meaning the models assess Under 3.5 as the more likely outcome at roughly 58–67% probability. The market prices Under 3.5 at 2.32 (implied 43.1%), offering clear value. Despite AZ's strong home attack, Willem II's Poisson xG is only 0.65, making a four-goal game less likely than the market suggests.

odds available at 09:45

AZ Alkmaar exhibits exceptional form and goal difference, with predicted odds significantly favoring a home win. The market odds are slightly higher than the fair value, suggesting value in backing AZ Alkmaar.

odds available at 09:45

AZ Alkmaar have dominant short-term form and a huge goal difference, while Willem II are very poor defensively. The Poisson model expects around 2.6 goals for AZ alone, and the fair odds for over 2.5 goals are well below the market price, offering strong value.

odds available at 09:45

While AZ Alkmaar possesses strong attacking metrics, Willem II's negligible expected goals output drastically reduces the likelihood of four or more combined goals. Both the short- and medium-term totals models indicate the fair probability for Under 3.5 Goals is much higher than the market's generous odds imply.

odds available at 09:45

Massive ELO gap (1730 vs 1262), AZ's excellent home form, and Willem II's woeful away numbers all point to a comfortable home win. All three model variants price AZ shorter than 1.36, with the pure short-term model at 1.26. Market price of 1.17 still offers a small edge given the extreme mismatch.

odds available at 09:45

The Poisson model projects 2.64 home goals alone against a poor defensive side, with predicted fair odds of 1.57-1.79 for over 2.5. AZ's strong short-term form and Willem II's -17 goal difference over 12 games signal a high-scoring home win is likely.

odds available at 09:45

AZ have a dominant strength edge while Willem II’s attacking projection is low across both recent windows. The both-teams-to-score fair view leans against both sides scoring, making 2.04 on 'No' value versus a 49.0% market implication.

odds available at 09:45

AZ are heavy favourites with home expected goals above 2.6 against a very weak Willem II defence conceding heavily, and the fair over 2.5 price sits near 1.57, well below the 1.30 back price. The large quality gap points to AZ scoring freely.

odds available at 09:45

Both goals models price over 3.5 considerably longer than the market, while Willem II's expected scoring output is below one goal in both windows. The offered price implies only a 43.1% chance of staying under four goals.

odds available at 09:45

Combined goal expectation is around 3.3, which both the short- and medium-term goal models translate to roughly a 58-67% chance of under 3.5 goals, yet the market prices the under at only ~43%. The market appears to be overpricing a home blowout.

odds available at 09:45