Barnsley's short-term Poisson expected goals of nearly 2.0 per game and form of 1.83 points per game is strong, with the 6-match statistical model placing fair odds around 1.66. While the ELO and goal-difference models are more cautious, the short-term data strongly suggests Barnsley at 2.90 represents significant value, particularly given Wycombe's poor away expected goals in recent form.