Bayern's Poisson expected goals is a staggering 3.15 per game over recent form, and over the last 12 matches they average 3.10 xG with a goal difference of +34. The fair value for over 3.5 goals is modelled at around 1.44 (short-term) and 1.34 (medium-term), making the market price of 1.50 look generous. Bayern's attacking output combined with Frankfurt's tendency to concede makes this a high-value over selection.