Bayern's Poisson model projects over 3 expected goals for the home side alone, with Union Berlin's poor away form and negative goal difference over 12 matches suggesting a one-sided affair. The statistical fair value for over 3.5 goals sits around 1.71-1.78, making the market price of 1.85 generous. Both short and medium-term windows confirm Bayern's high-scoring tendency.

odds available at 10:45

Bayern Munich's dominant form and ELO rating make this a high-confidence back, with the goal difference model strongly favoring a home win.

odds available at 10:45

Bayern's Poisson expected goals are 3.06-3.14 at home, and Union Berlin concede heavily. The models predict over 2.5 goals odds of 1.29-1.32, making the market price of 1.33 slightly generous. With Bayern's enormous attacking output and a +25 goal difference over 12 home matches, this is a high-probability outcome.

odds available at 10:45