Benfica's dominant form, significantly higher ELO rating, and strong predictive model support for a home win. The market odds heavily undervalue their probability of winning.

odds available at 09:45

Benfica have 2.33 form over six and 2.67 over twelve with a +21 goal difference, while Guimaraes sit on 0.5 and 0.42 form with a negative goal difference. The ELO model rates Benfica at 1.21 and the goal-difference model at 1.11, both shorter than the 1.23 available, indicating clear value on the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Benfica's ELO rating (1908 vs 1406) and goal-difference models all point to a dominant home performance, with all three fair odds models projecting Benfica between 1.21-1.43. Strong recent form (2.67 ppg over 12), high expected goals, and Guimaraes very weak away form support this favourite.

odds available at 09:45

Benfica carry a commanding ELO edge and dominant home form with a very strong goal difference against a struggling Guimaraes side. Multiple models price Benfica around 1.21, slightly below the 1.23 market, a modest but consistent back edge on a strong favourite.

odds available at 09:45