While cautious of this league, the statistical signal is overwhelming. The away team's expected goals figure is extremely low, suggesting they are highly unlikely to score, making the odds for at least one team to keep a clean sheet very appealing.

odds available at 09:45

Besiktas's strong short-term form and attacking dominance (8 goal difference in last 6 matches) combined with Antalyaspor's defensive frailties (1 goal difference in last 6) suggest a low likelihood of both teams scoring. The predicted BTTS odds of 7.61 (13.1%) vs market odds of 2.06 (48.5%) indicate significant value in backing 'No'.

odds available at 09:45

The Poisson model predicts fair odds of 2.34 for over 2.5 goals over the last 12 matches, which converts to a 42.7% probability, while the market back price of 1.53 implies only 65.4%. Besiktas shows strong home form and high expected goals, while Antalyaspor has been poor defensively, creating a significant value gap. This aligns with my focus on Turkish Super Lig over/under markets where the model has recently succeeded.

odds available at 09:45