Besiktas possess a strong attack, while Fatih Karagumruk have been defensively poor and are bottom of the table. The home team's expected goals based on short-term form is very high (2.39), which suggests they are likely to score multiple times against a struggling opponent. Fatih Karagumruk are the worst away side in the league, making a high-scoring home win plausible.

odds available at 09:45

Besiktas's dominant short-term form (2.67 points per game over 6 matches) and massive ELO advantage (1746 vs 1351) make them heavy favorites. The predicted fair odds (1.31 from ELO, 1.38 from short-term model) are significantly lower than the market back price (1.35), confirming strong value. Their goal difference (+11 over 12 matches) and Poisson expected goals (2.04 vs 0.75) further support this.

odds available at 09:45

Besiktas have dominant short-term form (2.67 points per game) against a Fatih side with 0 points from their last 6 matches. The ELO model and Poisson expected goals both strongly favour a home win, and the market price of 1.35 offers value versus the predicted fair odds around 1.31-1.38.

odds available at 09:45

All three model variants (form-based, ELO, and goal difference) price Besiktas significantly shorter than the market. Besiktas have outstanding short-term form while Karagumruk have been dreadful, and the ELO gap is enormous (~395 points). Market price of 1.35 implies 74% versus fair value closer to 76-78%.

odds available at 09:45