All five models consistently price Betis below the market offering of 2.32 — the ELO model gives a fair price of 1.72, the 12-month form model gives 1.70, and even the 6-month goal-difference model gives 2.08. Market-implied probability is 43.1% while my blended true estimate is ~54%. Levante have very poor recent form (0.83 points per game over 6 matches), and Betis show moderate but superior quality across every metric.

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Every available metric points to Betis being significantly undervalued. They have a large ELO advantage, vastly superior short and medium-term form, and all statistical models calculate their fair odds to be much lower than the market price.

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Betis has superior short-term form (1.67 vs 0.83) and a strong ELO advantage (1677 vs 1477), with the ELO model fair odds of 1.72 suggesting significant value at the market price of 2.32. The Poisson model also supports a Betis win with fair odds of 1.89, indicating the market is overpricing Levante.

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Betis demonstrates strong home metrics with 1.67 points per game and 1.49 expected goals in recent fixtures, while Levante shows poor away form (0.83 points per game) and low scoring output (0.83 expected goals). Statistical models consistently assign Betis a higher win probability than the market reflects, with clear alignment across ELO and goal-based projections.

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Betis show strong multi-model convergence: ELO at 1.72, goal-difference at 2.15, and medium-term form at 1.70, all significantly below the market 2.32. Betis have strong short-term (1.67) and medium-term (1.75) form, while Levante struggle (0.83 and 0.67). ELO gap is substantial (1677 vs 1477). Clear value on home side.

odds available at 09:45