Both teams’ recent attacking output is modest and the short- and medium-term totals models lean under. Market is pricing a higher goal game than the data supports.

Both Blackburn and Bristol City have low Poisson expected goals of 1.0 each over the last 6 matches, with the fair over 2.5 odds sitting at 3.10 (6-match) and 3.60 (12-match) — far above the market price of 2.30. The under 2.5 at 1.75 carries clear model-backed value in what should be a tight, low-scoring Championship fixture.