The ELO model shows significant value, pricing a home win at 1.79 against market odds of 2.32. This suggests the market may be overreacting to recent poor form, while underestimating Bologna's substantial underlying quality advantage, reflected in the large ELO rating gap between the two sides.

odds available at 09:55

The analysis shows Bologna's strong short-term defensive form (low expected goals conceded) and Cagliari's poor recent attacking output. The predicted BTTS odds (4.50) are significantly higher than the market's implied probability (50.0%), indicating the market may be overestimating the likelihood of both teams scoring.

odds available at 09:55

Both teams are producing very low xG — combined totals of just 1.33 (short-term) and 1.59 (medium-term). Both have negative goal differences and poor recent form (1.0 and 0.67 ppg). The Poisson model strongly favours a low-scoring game, and even conservatively estimating a 66% true probability for under 2.5, there is meaningful value against the market's implied 58%.

odds available at 09:55

Both teams project very low attacking output, with the recent and medium-term goal models both pointing to a low-total match. The scoring and BTTS numbers are much more consistent with a tight game than the market price suggests.

odds available at 09:55

Bologna's strong home form and Cagliari's poor away form suggest that Bologna are more likely to win than the market odds imply.

odds available at 10:25