The models strongly favour a low-scoring game, with predicted odds for Over 2.5 goals being significantly higher than the market price. Both teams are in poor league positions with Boulogne having only scored once in four matches.

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This projects as a low-output Ligue 2 match: expected goals are modest in both samples and the totals model makes three goals less likely than the market suggests. The low both-teams-to-score expectation also supports a tighter game.

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Both teams have very weak expected goals metrics over both the short and medium term, leading the model to drastically raise the fair odds for Over 2.5. This directly suggests the current price on Under 2.5 significantly underrates a tight, low-scoring match.

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Both recent and medium-term goal projections point to a low-scoring match, with the goal model making over 2.5 much less likely than the market implies. Recent attacking expectations are modest for both teams.

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Both teams have weak recent attacking numbers, and the model gives at least one side failing to score a far higher probability than the near-even market odds. Backing No on both teams to score carries clear value.

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The two analysis windows project only 1.67 to 2.00 total goals and estimate the under at roughly 68% to 77%. That is clearly above the market-implied probability of 61.3%.

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Combined expected goals are below two in the recent window, and both sample windows put the fair price for over 2.5 goals between 3.1 and 4.3, implying under 2.5 lands around 68-77% versus a market-implied 61%. Two blunt, low-scoring Ligue 2 attacks support a goals-under position.

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Recent expected-goals samples are low for both teams and short-term over 2.5 fair odds sit well above 3.0. The market Under price still leaves a clear edge on a low-scoring game.

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