Braga show strong form (2.17 points per game over 6 matches), a massive ELO advantage of 304 points, and all statistical models converge on them as strong favourites — the ELO model gives fair odds of 1.45, the medium-term Poisson model 1.79, and short-term Poisson 1.72. The market price of 1.48 sits within our target range and aligns closely with model fair value, representing a moderate but consistent edge.

odds available at 09:45