Braga's strong form, ELO rating (1705 vs 1399), and goal difference advantage (3 vs -12 over 12 matches) make them clear favourites. The predicted fair odds (1.44) align with the market, but the underlying metrics strongly support a Braga win.

odds available at 09:45

Braga's ELO rating of 1705 against Estoril's 1399, plus a +3 versus -12 goal difference over twelve matches, makes the home win the clear value. The fair home price of 1.44 matches the market, but the underlying strength gap and Estoril's poor short-term form (0.33 points per game) justify backing the favourite.

odds available at 09:45

Large ELO gap (1705 vs 1399) with the ELO model pricing Braga at 1.44 fair, and the goal-difference model even shorter at 1.43. Estoril's dismal short-term form (0.33 ppg, -7 GD) and Braga's home strength support the price.

odds available at 09:45

ELO fair odds of 1.44 match the market, but the goal-difference model prices Braga at 1.43 and medium-term Poisson at 1.91. Estoril's dire form (0.33 short-term, 0.92 medium-term) and -12 goal difference over 12 games suggest the market isn't fully pricing their weakness. Braga's medium-term form of 2.08 supports this being a comfortable home win.

odds available at 09:45

Braga hold a huge ELO edge and vastly superior medium-term form and goal difference over a poor Estoril side. Fair-odds models cluster around 1.43-1.44, and Braga's home strength supports backing at 1.44.

odds available at 09:45