Recent matches for both sides have been open, with high expected goals and strong ‘both teams to score’ likelihood. Short- and medium-term models price the over well below the market.

odds available at 09:45

The analysis indicates a high probability of goals, with both the short-term and medium-term models suggesting fair odds for this outcome are much lower than the market price. The Poisson model's high expected goals for both teams further reinforces the likelihood of an open, high-scoring match.

odds available at 09:45

Short-term Poisson expected goals are high for both teams (Brest 1.95, Strasbourg 2.25), giving fair BTTS odds of 1.30 — significantly lower than the market's 1.68. The medium-term window also supports this with fair odds of 1.53. Brest have scored at home in all but one match in 2026, and Strasbourg's away form has been strong with goals at both ends.

odds available at 09:45

Short-term model prices Under 3.5 at 1.66 fair, medium-term at 2.38—both suggesting value at 1.47. However, the short-term is more relevant: both teams show attacking intent (1.95 and 2.25 xG) but the market's 1.47 implies 68% probability which may still be too high given Brest's poor goal difference (-9). Conservative play on medium-term reversion with ELO near-equality suggesting tight contest.

odds available at 09:45