High combined xG and strong recent attacking form on both sides. The models put 4+ goals around a coin flip, making the price generous.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams are in strong attacking form with combined expected goals of 3.91 in the short-term window and 3.38 over 12 matches. The Poisson model gives a fair over-2.5 price of 1.34, far shorter than the 1.83 available, indicating clear back value.

odds available at 09:45

This is backed by elite recent attacking numbers on both sides, strong medium-term goal projections and a very short fair price for the over. With both teams also showing strong recent form, the market looks too conservative on the total.

odds available at 09:45

Brighton are in excellent short-term form and are outperforming Arsenal in expected goals at home. While Arsenal have the higher ELO rating, the market is pricing their away win far too short compared to all fair odds models.

odds available at 09:45

Both sides show strong attacking form and the goal models project a high-scoring match. The fair prices for both teams scoring are clearly shorter than the market, so the offered odds look too generous.

odds available at 09:45

Both sides carry strong recent form and the expected-goals projections total 3.91 in the short window and 3.38 over the longer window. Both goals models price over 2.5 shorter than the available market odds.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams are in prolific scoring form with strong positive goal differences and combined expected goals over 3.9, yet the market offers 1.83 which understates the likelihood of a high-scoring match.

odds available at 09:45