There's a substantial discrepancy between the market odds and the model's expectation for both teams to score. Wolves are in dreadful attacking form, with a very low expected goals figure over their last six games, while Brighton are strong favourites to win. The analysis suggests a high probability that Brighton will keep a clean sheet.

odds available at 09:45

Brighton have strong form (1.83 avg points per game) with a +5 goal difference over 6 matches, while Wolves are in dreadful form (0.33) with a -7 goal difference. The ELO model rates Brighton at 1661 vs Wolves at 1312, and all predicted odds models suggest fair value around 1.37-1.53, making the 1.29 back price a solid value play.

odds available at 09:45