Both time windows lean to goals and Poisson projects ~3.1 expected goals. The models price Over 2.5 well below evens, creating a clear value gap at 2.30.

odds available at 09:45

Burgos hold a massive ELO advantage (1670 vs 1410), with ELO-derived fair odds of 1.54 against a market price of 2.64. The goal-difference model prices them at 1.84 (short-term) and 1.53 (medium-term), and their home form is excellent at 2.33 points per game. All major signals — ELO, goal difference, form — consistently favour Burgos, making the market's 37.9% implied probability look materially too low.

odds available at 09:45

Multiple analysis models indicate a significant mispricing by the market. The ELO model and goal-difference models suggest fair odds should be closer to 1.54, reflecting Burgos's superior strength rating and excellent home form compared to Granada's mediocre away record.

odds available at 09:45

Burgos's strong home form (2.33 PPG short-term, 2.17 medium-term) combines with high Poisson expected goals (1.65 + 1.49 = 3.14 combined short-term). Both teams have been scoring freely this season — Burgos have 12 in 8 and Granada 13 in 8. Model fair odds of 1.64-1.81 for Over 2.5 versus market 2.30 represent clear value, supported by positive home goal difference and ELO-driven attacking superiority.

odds available at 09:45

Burgos have the stronger recent and medium-term form, the better goal difference trend, and the rating-based strength numbers also favour the home side. The market is pricing this closer to an even game than the underlying data suggests.

odds available at 09:45

The ELO strength rating strongly favours a home win, generating fair odds of 1.54 compared to the generous market price of 2.64. Medium-term statistical projections also indicate value at 2.13, which is supported by Burgos's superior home form and goal difference.

odds available at 09:45

All three analysis models (match odds, goal difference, and ELO) strongly favour Burgos, with the ELO model implying fair odds around 1.54 and the goal-difference model around 1.53-1.84. Burgos has superior short and medium-term form, a +7 goal difference versus Granada's -5, and a 260-point ELO advantage. Market price of 2.64 offers substantial value against estimated fair odds near 1.80-2.10.

odds available at 09:45

Strong short-term attacking metrics for both sides with high expected goals, and the statistical model heavily favours a high-scoring game compared to the market pricing.

odds available at 09:45

Burgos have much stronger short- and medium-term form, a better goal-difference profile, and a large ELO advantage. The market implies only 37.9%, while several fair-value views put the home win materially shorter.

odds available at 09:45

Burgos show strong home short-term and medium-term form against a struggling Granada side, with a large ELO advantage and a dominant goal difference. The statistical models all rate Burgos around even-money or shorter, yet the market offers 2.64, implying clear back value.

odds available at 09:45

The price implies only a 37.9% home-win probability, while Burgos have much stronger short- and medium-term form, a superior goal difference and a substantial ELO advantage. Multiple models make their fair price considerably shorter than the market.

odds available at 09:45

All models point strongly to the home side: Burgos have clearly better short-term and medium-term form, a superior goal difference, and a large ELO advantage, with every fair-odds estimate pricing them well below the market's 2.64. The market appears to be overrating Granada's name relative to current performance.

odds available at 09:45

Excellent home form, a large positive goal difference swing and a big ELO gap all favour Burgos, yet they are priced as only a mild favourite. Blending the more conservative Poisson and goal-difference signals still leaves clear value at 2.64 without needing the most aggressive ELO figure.

odds available at 09:45

Burgos are in outstanding form with 2.33 points per game over their last 6 matches and an ELO strength rating advantage over Granada (1670 vs 1410). Goal difference and ELO fair value models assess home win odds between 1.53 and 1.84, highlighting substantial back value at market odds of 2.64.

odds available at 09:45

Burgos has demonstrated strong short-term home form with 2.33 points per game, while Granada's away form sits at 1.17. Burgos also holds a better goal difference at +3 compared to -2, indicating a more favourable overall situation, giving them the edge for a home win.

odds available at 09:45

Burgos show better short- and medium-term form, a stronger goal-difference profile, and a clear strength-rating edge over Granada. The market's home price is too generous relative to the statistical fair odds.

odds available at 09:45

Combined expected goals are high across both recent windows, consistently pointing to an over-2.5 probability well above the market's implied price. Burgos are in excellent home form with a strong goal difference, and Granada have been leaky defensively, reinforcing the goals signal.

odds available at 09:45

Burgos combine strong short- and medium-term form with a large ELO advantage over Granada, and both the goal-difference and ELO models make them clear favourites (fair odds 1.5-1.8) versus a market price of 2.64. Multiple independent signals align on the home side, so the market looks to be underrating Burgos.

odds available at 09:45

Every model rates Burgos as more likely to win than the 37.9% the market gives them. The ELO and goal-difference models put the win near 65%. Burgos' home form is much stronger than Granada's over both the short and medium term, and the ELO gap between the sides is large.

odds available at 09:45