The market implies 59.2% for under 2.5, but both teams’ recent and medium-term goal projections are very low. The fair goal models make higher-scoring outcomes much less likely than the market price suggests.

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Both teams show subdued recent scoring rates and the Poisson totals across short and medium windows point to a very low-event match. Market implied probability for under 2.5 sits well below a conservative reading of those numbers.

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Both teams are in poor, low-scoring form (0.83 and 0.83 points per game over six, 0.42 and 0.58 over twelve) with negative goal differences, and the Poisson goal expectations sum to well under 1.5 goals. Both the six and twelve-match models put under 2.5 comfortably above the 1.69 market price implies.

odds available at 09:45