Both windows point to a lower-scoring match with modest combined expected goals, and the models price the over closer to the mid-2s. The market’s 2.00 overstates the chance.

odds available at 09:45

Atalanta's strong short-term and medium-term form, superior ELO rating (1631 vs 1474), and consistent goal difference advantage (10 vs -4 over 12 matches) all point to a clear edge. The predicted fair odds (1.88 from ELO, 2.26 from short-term model) are lower than the market back price (1.81), indicating value. The Poisson model also expects Atalanta to outscore Cagliari.

odds available at 09:45

Atalanta have a superior goal difference (+10 over 12 matches vs Cagliari's -4) and a commanding ELO advantage (1631 vs 1474). The ELO model's fair odds of 1.88 are close to the market, but the goal-difference model suggests even stronger value at 2.11, and Cagliari's poor medium-term form (1.25 points per game) supports an away win.

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Combined Poisson xG of just 2.33 (short-term) and 2.24 (medium-term) strongly favours under 2.5 goals, with the model pricing over 2.5 at 2.43-2.56 fair odds. Cagliari have failed to score in three of their last five home games and won just one of ten matches. Atalanta have only two wins in eleven games and played 120 minutes of cup action midweek. Both teams are struggling offensively, and Atalanta have the third-best defensive record in Serie A.

odds available at 09:45

Both the short-term and medium-term goal projections make this look lower scoring than the market suggests, with total expected goals only around the low 2s. The fair price for under 2.5 looks shorter than 2.00, so the market appears to be overestimating the chance of a three-goal game.

odds available at 09:45

The market implies a 55% probability for an away win, but the ELO and Poisson models indicate Atalanta's true chances are considerably lower, pricing them between 1.88 and 2.65. With Cagliari showing superior short-term form, laying the visitors offers solid value.

odds available at 09:45