The ELO model strongly favours Napoli with fair odds of 1.78, matching the current back price almost exactly. However, Napoli's better form (1.67 ppg over 6 vs Cagliari's 1.33), higher ELO rating (1665 vs 1482), and positive goal difference over 6 matches all support the away win. Cagliari's -3 goal difference over 12 matches and weaker medium-term form make 1.79 reasonable value for Napoli.

odds available at 10:45

Both short-term and medium-term goal models suggest the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is much higher than the market price indicates. The models' fair odds are significantly lower than 2.62, highlighting strong value in this selection.

odds available at 10:45

Napoli's recent form and ELO rating suggest they are the stronger side, with the ELO model predicting fair odds of 1.78. The market odds of 1.79 offer slight value for a Napoli win.

odds available at 10:45

The 12-match Poisson expected goals for both teams are modest at 1.16 each, giving predicted over 2.5 fair odds of 2.43. The short-term data gives predicted over 2.5 odds of 1.87. The market prices under 2.5 at 1.60 (implied 62.5%), but the models suggest a true probability closer to 65% for under 2.5 in this relatively low-scoring matchup.

odds available at 10:45