Home side holds the edge on recent form and ratings, and the models make them a shorter price than on offer. Market appears to underrate the hosts.

odds available at 10:45

Both teams show limited attacking output with Poisson expected goals of 1.17 and 0.83 respectively over 6 matches, and the model projects fair Under 2.5 odds of 3.10 from the shorter window and 2.90 from the medium term — both suggesting a low-scoring game is more likely than the market implies. The market back price of 1.69 for Under 2.5 aligns well with the statistical expectation of a tight, low-scoring contest.

odds available at 10:45

All available statistical models, including ELO and form-based projections, indicate that the home team has a much higher chance of winning than the market odds imply. The home side's strong recent form contrasts sharply with the visitor's poor away results.

odds available at 10:45