CD Castellon's strong recent form and higher ELO rating compared to Almeria suggest they are undervalued by the market. The predicted odds align closely with the market, but the home side's attacking metrics and goal difference advantage provide a slight edge.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams show strong attacking numbers with high expected goals metrics over recent matches. The predicted fair odds for BTTS Yes are 1.47, significantly lower than the market back price of 1.55. With both teams averaging over 1.3 expected goals per game in their last 6 matches, the probability of both scoring appears higher than the market implies.

odds available at 09:45

The Poisson expected goals are high — 1.97 home and 1.32 away over 6 matches, 2.11 and 1.48 over 12 matches — producing combined xG well above 3. The model's fair over 2.5 odds sit at 1.44-1.57 across windows, meaningfully below the market price of 1.59. Castellon's strong home form (2.33 ppg over 12) and Almeria's reasonable attacking output make this a high-scoring profile. The market implies ~62.9% probability; I estimate closer to 67.5%.

odds available at 09:45

The home team demonstrates strong medium-term form and a positive goal difference, while the statistical models suggest a slightly higher chance of home victory than the market odds imply.

odds available at 10:45