Both recent and 12‑match totals models point to a sub‑65% chance of three or more goals. With combined xG projections shy of a shootout, the market overstates the over.

odds available at 09:45

CD Castellon shows strong short-term and medium-term form, with a significant goal difference advantage and higher Poisson expected goals. The ELO model and goal-difference model both strongly favor a home win, and the market odds of 1.30 are well below the predicted fair odds, indicating clear value.

odds available at 09:45

Castellon have dominant form across both short and medium windows, with a huge ELO advantage and a goal difference of +3 in recent games versus Cadiz's -8. The predicted fair odds from all models (1.36-1.77) are well below the market price of 1.30, indicating the market is underestimating Castellon's win probability against a Cadiz side in terrible form.

odds available at 09:45

All three model variants strongly favour Castellon, with the ELO model in particular putting fair odds at 1.36 versus a market price of 1.30. Castellon's medium-term form is excellent while Cadiz has dreadful goal difference and form numbers. Multiple aligned signals support a confident back at a short price.

odds available at 09:45

Extremely strong multi-signal case. Cadiz manage only 1.0 xG away with terrible 0.67 form and -8 goal difference over 6 matches. Castellon dominate at home with 2.33 long-term form and strong ELO advantage. Predicted BTTS odds at 1.89 (6-match) and 1.74 (12-match) both signal No strongly. Market offers 2.02, implying only 49.5% for No BTTS.

odds available at 09:45