Despite being market favorites, the home side is in poorer recent form than an Eibar team that must win to have any chance of making the playoffs. Several short-term models suggest the home team is overpriced, indicating value in opposing them given the differing motivation levels.

odds available at 09:45

Castellon's medium-term form (2.17 points per game over last 12) and strong xG profile (2.04 xG for, 0.66 against) indicate clear superiority over Eibar (1.33 points per game). The predicted match odds model rates Castellon at 1.43, well below the market 1.59, suggesting value on the home win.

odds available at 09:45

The goal projections are healthy enough for chances, but they still sit below the level needed to make four or more goals the most likely outcome. Medium-term numbers are slightly calmer, so the under has a small but explainable edge at this price.

odds available at 09:45

Statistical models indicate the home side is significantly overvalued by the market. The visitors exhibit stronger short-term form, and the fair-value ELO odds suggest the true probability of a home win is closer to a coin toss than the current market implied probability.

odds available at 09:45