Short-term home form/xG plus an ELO lean to Celta create a home-edge; the market price overstates Alaves’ chances.

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Celta Vigo's underlying metrics are solid, generating 1.65 expected goals over their last six matches compared to Alaves' 0.83. Both the short-term model and the ELO rating price the home win shorter than 2.00, providing strong value against the market's 2.36.

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Celta's price implies 42.4%, while the fair-value indicators cluster closer to an even-money home chance. Short-term expected goals, goal-difference measures and the ELO model all point toward Celta being underpriced.

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Celta have the stronger short-term goal expectation (about 1.65 vs 0.8), a clear ELO advantage and the better of the goal-difference modelling, putting their fair price around 2.0-2.1. The market's 2.36 leaves a moderate, explainable edge on the home side.

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ELO and short-term home attacking metrics lean Celta, with Alaves offering little recent punch. The market still prices the home win at under 43%, leaving a moderate but clear edge.

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Celta's recent attacking form and strength rating give them a slight edge, while the market price offers more than the models suggest.

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Celta Vigo carry a sizeable ELO advantage and a stronger expected-goals edge in both windows, with short-term form and the ELO model both implying a higher win probability than the market's 2.36 price reflects.

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Celta Vigo hold a clear advantage in home form and expected goals over Alaves. The market is offering value on the home side given the statistical edge in both short-term performance and attacking output.

odds available at 09:45