Freiburg enter this second leg with a 3-0 aggregate lead and have been exceptionally defensively sound in European away fixtures — their previous three Europa League road games produced just two goals across 270 minutes, and Under 2.5 has landed in 64% of their Europa League matches this season. Celta have gone 189 minutes without scoring across all competitions and were beaten 3-0 at home by relegation-threatened Oviedo last weekend, highlighting a severe attacking crisis. With Freiburg likely to defend deep and protect their advantage, the chance of both teams scoring is lower than the market-implied 46.3%, supporting a BTTS No back at 2.16.

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Research shows Celta Vigo must attack to overcome a 3-0 first-leg deficit, which should create an open match. Celta's recent defensive record is poor, having conceded 6 goals in their last two games, and Freiburg are more than capable of scoring on the counter-attack against an exposed defence.

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Celta trail 0-3 from the first leg and must attack relentlessly at home, which should produce an open, end-to-end game. Both teams have gone over 2.5 goals in their last 4-5 matches. Celta's last 4 games have all exceeded 2.5 goals, and Freiburg's last 5 games mostly did too. While Freiburg may be conservative away, Celta's desperation to chase 3+ goals will stretch the game, creating opportunities for both sides to score and goals to flow.

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Celta Vigo's impressive home record over the last six matches and Freiburg's confirmed injuries to star forwards provide a specific edge not fully reflected in the market.

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Research confirms the hosts face a 3-0 aggregate deficit, suffer from key injuries, and lost heavily again at the weekend. While they are slight favourites on the night, their poor form makes them vulnerable. Laying the home side provides value against an inflated market expectation.

odds available at 10:45