Celta Vigo show strong recent form (2.0 points per game over 6), the ELO model prices them at 1.53, and the short-term Poisson model at 1.72 — both substantially below the market price of 1.81. The +7 goal difference over 12 matches and dominant xG projection (2.39 vs 1.47) support a home win, though the goal difference model is more cautious. The 1.81 price sits squarely in my preferred value range.

odds available at 09:45

A strong agreement between ELO, form, and goal-difference models indicates Celta Vigo is undervalued. They have a substantial ELO advantage and are in excellent recent form, facing an opponent who has struggled lately on the road.

odds available at 09:45

Celta's short-term xG is 2.39 with Oviedo contributing 1.47 - combined 3.86. The 6-match model gives fair odds of 1.35 and the 12-match model 1.81 for over 2.5. Celta have strong recent home form at 2.0 PPG over 6 matches and a +7 GD over 12. Market at 2.10 offers value in the range I'm targeting.

odds available at 09:45

Celta Vigo demonstrates solid recent home form and a positive goal difference, while the ELO model and Poisson expected goals support a home victory with predicted fair odds below the market back price, offering value in this La Liga encounter.

odds available at 09:45