The market prices Celtic at 1.60 (implying a 62.5% win probability), but the short-term form model suggests fair odds of 1.91, the medium-term model 1.97, and the ELO model 1.69 — all indicating the market is significantly overestimating Celtic's win probability. True probability is closer to 55%, making a lay at 1.61 justified.

odds available at 09:45

Celtic's strong short-term and medium-term form, combined with a high ELO rating and goal difference advantage, suggests they are undervalued by the market. The predicted odds align with this assessment.

odds available at 09:45

Celtic have won all six recent matches (2.5 form, +7 goal difference) and sit at 2.5 over twelve, while Hearts are on 0.83 with +8 goal difference but weaker underlying numbers. The ELO model prices Celtic at 1.69, the Poisson model at 1.91, and the goal-difference model at 2.23, all shorter than the 1.60 available. The 1.60 price implies 62.5%, giving a clear edge.

odds available at 09:45

Celtic's short-term form is close to maximum and the ELO rating gap over Hearts is substantial, with the ELO model pricing a home win shorter than the market. Multiple models align on Celtic being underpriced here.

odds available at 09:45

Celtic are in fine form but Hearts' underlying numbers are genuinely strong — a positive goal difference over both windows — and every model family prices the home win between roughly 1.7 and 2.2 rather than the market's 1.6. The market is over-rating the favourite, so laying at a short price offers value.

odds available at 09:45