Both sides show high recent attacking xG and the totals models price Over 2.5 closer to 1.3–1.4. Despite derby variance, the market is discounting goals at 1.59.

odds available at 09:55

Poisson expected goals heavily favour a high-scoring game: combined xG of 3.76 (6-match) to 4.13 (12-match). The predicted fair odds for Over 2.5 range from 1.28 to 1.38 across both windows, well below the market price of 1.59. Celtic are fighting for the title at home, Rangers have scored 14 goals in their last 5 but conceded 9, and the high-stakes derby context supports an open game.

odds available at 09:55

The Poisson model indicates a high likelihood of both teams scoring based on expected goals for each side. Medium-term trends support goals from both teams in this rivalry match.

odds available at 09:55

Statistical models consistently estimate both teams scoring at approximately 72% probability, significantly above the market's implied 63%. This edge is reinforced by high expected goals output from both sides (1.96 and 1.80) and positive recent goal difference trends supporting a high-probability BTTS outcome.

odds available at 09:55

Both teams project close to two goals in the short-term data, and the medium-term numbers are just as strong for an open game. The fair price for both teams to score comes out shorter than the market.

odds available at 09:55