Both short- and medium-term goal models lean under: Poisson totals sit around 2.4–2.6 and the fair price for over 2.5 is ~2.1–2.2. That implies the under should be near 1.8–1.9, so 2.50 is strong value.

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Charleroi's ELO rating and predicted odds suggest they are undervalued by the market. Their recent form and goal difference also support a home win, despite mixed medium-term trends.

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Charleroi have a massive ELO rating advantage (1592 vs 1357) and the ELO model fair odds of 1.61 indicate significant value at the market back price of 1.75. Although recent form is modest, the goal difference model and Poisson xG also favour the home side, and Oud-Heverlee Leuven have a -7 goal difference over 6 matches.

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Both teams project for fairly modest scoring and the overall expected-goals picture sits around a middling total rather than a strong over game. The goal models make over 2.5 notably less likely than the market does, so the under price looks generous.

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Charleroi's goal-difference model prices them at 1.53 and the ELO model at 1.61, both shorter than the market's 1.75. A 235-point ELO advantage and far stronger goal difference outweigh the modest short-term form gap.

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ELO fair odds of 1.61 and goal-difference model at 1.53-1.74 both signal value against 1.75 market price. Home side has superior 6-game form (1.0 vs 0.83) and crucially positive goal difference (+5 vs -7) despite modest overall records. The ELO gap (1592 vs 1357) is very wide.

odds available at 09:45